The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is likely to report muted results in the fourth quarter of 2024-25 (Q4FY25) due to weakness in urban consumption. The weakness may persist through the first half of 2025-26 (H1FY26).
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her speech in Lok Sabha said, "Our vision for the 'Amrit Kaal' includes technology-driven and knowledge-based economy with strong public finances, and a robust financial sector. To achieve this, Jan Bhagidari through Sabka Saath Sabka Prayas is essential."
The Centre is staring at a combined shortfall of up to Rs 1 trillion in excise and Customs revenues in the current financial year (FY23) compared to the Budget estimates (BE), mainly because of duty cuts on edible oil and petroleum products. The government set a target of Rs 3.35 trillion for excise and Rs 2.13 trillion for Customs mop-up for FY23 while presenting the Budget in February. "As excise duty collection is mainly driven by diesel volumes, we might see a clear gap in the level budgeted for FY23, following the reduction in cesses on petrol and diesel in May. We are expecting somewhere between Rs 80,000 crore and Rs 1 trillion dip in excise and customs duty collections," a senior government official told Business Standard.
'We are not incentivising the old tax scheme. These taxpayers will also shift to the new regime after comparison.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said the upcoming Budget for 2021-22 will sustain the momentum of public spending on infrastructure and have a "vibrancy" to ensure the economic revival continues. She also said the pace of divestment, which has been hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, will pick up in the coming months. "We shall definitely sustain the momentum of public spending in infrastructure. Because that is the one way we assure that the multipliers will work and the economy's revival will be sustainable.... "I am conscious that the forthcoming Budget will have a vibrancy that is so required for the economy's revival, sustainable revival," she said at the Assocham Foundation Week. The Budget for the 2021-22 fiscal is expected to be tabled in Parliament on February 1.
Even as Chinese troops continue squatting on territory that we claim as our own -- this was the lowest allocation for defence in percentage terms since the 1950s, reveals Ajai Shukla.
The finance minister has stayed true to her commitment to fiscal consolidation, even though the pace of the decline in the deficit could have been faster, notes A K Bhattacharya.
The ministry of minority affairs informed the Lok Sabha that in 2022-2023, it had been allotted Rs 5,020.5 crore (Rs 50.20 billion); in the Revised Estimates, it had got Rs 2,612.66 crore (Rs 26.12 billion); and had spent, until the end of March this year, Rs 712.5 crore (Rs 7,12 billion).
The Uttar Pradesh government is expecting over 35 crore pilgrims to attend the Maha Kumbh Mela in Prayagraj, a significant increase from the 24 crore who attended the 2019 Kumbh Mela. The event, which will take place over 45 days, will feature extensive security and sanitation measures, as well as a digital component. The state government has allocated Rs 7,000 crore for the event.
India maintains "high" import duties on a wide range of American goods such as agricultural items, drug formulations, and alcoholic beverages, besides imposing non-tariif barriers, a US report has said. A day before announcing reciprocal tariffs, the US Trade Representative (USTR) released the 2025 National Trade Estimate (NTE) Report on March 31.
Direct tax collection, net of refunds, moderately exceeded the revised estimates (RE) for the financial year 2023-24 (FY24) on the back of personal income tax revenues, but corporation tax receipts fell short of the RE. Net direct tax collection stood at Rs 19.58 trillion in FY24, surpassing the RE of Rs 19.45 trillion by Rs 13,000 crore, or 0.7 per cent. The government had revised up FY24 projections for personal income tax by 13.5 per cent over the Budget estimates (BE) of Rs 9 trillion, at Rs 10.22 trillion.
Invest in these funds through the SIP route with at least a seven-year horizon.
The government's subsidies on food, fertilisers, LPG and kerosene are pegged at Rs 5.96 lakh crore in the current fiscal, over 2.5-fold jump from the initial budget estimates as the Centre distributed additional foodgrains free of cost to help poor mitigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic. In February 2020 Budget, presented in the pre-COVID scare, the government had estimated the subsidy bill at Rs 227,794 crore. However, all the budget estimates, have undergone major revisions as the country imposed strict lockdown to check the spread of COVID-19.
The ministry of finance is likely to assume crude oil price to remain within $85 per barrel while estimating subsidies for the Interim Budget 2024-25 (FY25), to be presented on February 1. Brent crude prices moved up on Thursday, ending at $78.9 per barrel. Crude oil and cooking gas prices, which move in tandem, impact fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies, constituting 53 per cent of the government's total subsidies.
The government is likely to provide a subsidy of Rs 35,000 crore to state-owned Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) to make up for losses they incurred on selling the fuel this fiscal, sources said.
Roads, railways, and coal together are likely to account for 70 per cent of the government's takings from the upcoming second edition of the National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP), set to run from FY26 to FY30. In comparison, these three sectors are estimated to have contributed 66 per cent in the first edition of the NMP - FY22 to FY25.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Adani Ports, UltraTech Cement, Larsen & Toubro, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, NTPC and State Bank of India were the major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries, ITC, Asian Paints, HCL Tech and Maruti were among the gainers.
The RBI raked in a massive net income gain from foreign exchange currency sales as a buffer for the rupee during tumultuous geopolitical upheavals last year owing to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will have to do a tight-rope walk between staying fiscally prudent and general public expectations of lower taxes and a wider social security net, while at the same time firing the engines of the economy before general elections. Sitharaman will on Wednesday present her fifth straight Budget at a time when the economy is slowing due to global headwinds and specific sectors need attention. In the run-up to the Budget presentation, expectations are rife that she may tweak income-tax slabs to provide relief to the middle class and increase spending on the poor through programmes such as the rural job scheme while ramping up financial incentives for local manufacturing.
Could it have been more reformist? Of course, but this is an election year Budget, observes Akash Prakash.
The USTR report, released just ahead of the US' April 2 deadline for implementing reciprocal tariffs, has also cited high tariffs and price caps, which have not increased in line with inflation, as key obstacles for US businesses.
'Any finality in such matters requires political views. We will review it closer to the full Budget.'
'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday projected general government debt to stabilise above 80 per cent of GDP over the next three years, down from 89.3 per cent in 2020-21. "General government interest payments to fall to around 24 per cent of general government revenue over the next two years from over 28 per cent in fiscal 2020-21, although this remains much higher than the median 8.7 per cent recorded by Baa-rated peers," Moody's Ratings associate managing director Gene Fang said in a post-Budget reaction.
Fiscal deficit is a reflection of government borrowings, which is used to bridge the gap between revenue and expenditure.
As per practice a vote-on-account or approval for essential government spending for a limited period is taken in the election year and a full-fledged budget presented by the new government.
The defence budget was increased to Rs 5.94 lakh crore for 2023-24, up from last year's allocation of Rs 5.25 lakh crore.
'When people have money in their hands, they make their judgment about whether they want to spend it entirely or spend some out of it.'
The net direct tax collection for the fiscal ended March 31 stood at Rs 9.45 lakh crore, an increase of 5 per cent over the revised estimates in the Union Budget. Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) Chairman P C Mody on Friday said the income tax department has exceeded the revised estimates despite issuing substantial refunds in the 2020-21 fiscal. During the fiscal, the net corporate tax collection stood at Rs 4.57 lakh crore, while net personal income tax was Rs 4.71 lakh crore. Another Rs 16,927 crore came from securities transaction tax (STT).
To threaten China and Pakistan, and then to sharply cut back on military funding, bespeaks a remarkable trust in Beijing and Islamabad that is not borne out by anything they say or do, notes Ajai Shukla.
'The intensity and frequency of heatwaves will be much higher than in previous years over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha.'
Wedding planner WedMeGood estimates that the average wedding budget has surged to Rs 36.5 lakh this year, with destination weddings averaging Rs 51 lakh.
India's economy grew 7.6 per cent in the September quarter of this fiscal and remained the fastest-growing large economy, mainly due to better performance by manufacturing, mining and services sectors, the government data showed on Thursday. The gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 6.2 per cent in the July-September quarter of 2022-23. India remained the fastest-growing major economy, as China posted a 4.9 per cent growth in July-September 2023.
Equity benchmarks climbed in early trade on Wednesday amid an overall positive trend in the global markets and ahead of the presentation of Union Budget 2023-24. The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex jumped 516.97 points to 60,066.87. The broader NSE Nifty climbed 153.15 points to 17,815.30.
The central government's fiscal deficit touched 32.6 per cent of the annual target in the current financial year till August as against 31.1 per cent recorded a year ago, according to official data released on Friday. In actual terms, the fiscal deficit -- the difference between expenditure and revenue --- was Rs 5,41,601 crore during the April-August period of this financial year. Fiscal deficit is an indicator of the government's borrowings from the market.
'For free supply of drugs and medicines itself, almost Rs 20,000 crores would be required.'
According to the third batch of supplementary demands for grants tabled in the Lok Sabha, approval is being sought for gross additional expenditure of over Rs 1.58 lakh crore.
The Centre could better its fiscal deficit at 6.6 per cent of GDP in this financial year on stronger-than-expected revenue buoyancy, even if the budgeted disinvestment target is not met, Fitch Ratings has said. The international rating agency had last week kept the sovereign rating unchanged at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook, and said that the risks to India's medium-term growth outlook are narrowing with rapid economic recovery from the pandemic and easing financial sector pressures. In an email interview with PTI, Fitch Ratings Director (Asia-Pacific Sovereigns) Jeremy Zook said the two key positive triggers that could lead to a revision of the outlook to stable are implementation of a credible medium-term fiscal strategy to lower debt burden and higher medium-term investment and growth rates without the creation of macroeconomic imbalances, such as from successful structural reform implementation and a healthier financial sector.
Buying or selling securities based on rumours about expected changes in tax rates or sectoral sops can backfire, advises Sarbajeet K Sen.
Unlike the Advance Estimates which missed the impact of demonetisation, CEA's survey is likely to have a better take on Indian economy.
