The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
The Centre is staring at a combined shortfall of up to Rs 1 trillion in excise and Customs revenues in the current financial year (FY23) compared to the Budget estimates (BE), mainly because of duty cuts on edible oil and petroleum products. The government set a target of Rs 3.35 trillion for excise and Rs 2.13 trillion for Customs mop-up for FY23 while presenting the Budget in February. "As excise duty collection is mainly driven by diesel volumes, we might see a clear gap in the level budgeted for FY23, following the reduction in cesses on petrol and diesel in May. We are expecting somewhere between Rs 80,000 crore and Rs 1 trillion dip in excise and customs duty collections," a senior government official told Business Standard.
Defence stocks have been on a tear, with the Nifty India Defence index hitting all-time highs. Over the past week, the index jumped around 7 per cent, far outpacing the flat performance of the Nifty 50. Over the past month, its 12 per cent gain has trebled the benchmark's return.
'We now look at divestment as an opportunity for maximising the value of public assets, not necessarily as a short-term resource-raising measure.'
Even as Chinese troops continue squatting on territory that we claim as our own -- this was the lowest allocation for defence in percentage terms since the 1950s, reveals Ajai Shukla.
'Each state is unique, but when it comes to finance, the fundamentals cannot be different.'
The government's subsidies on food, fertilisers, LPG and kerosene are pegged at Rs 5.96 lakh crore in the current fiscal, over 2.5-fold jump from the initial budget estimates as the Centre distributed additional foodgrains free of cost to help poor mitigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic. In February 2020 Budget, presented in the pre-COVID scare, the government had estimated the subsidy bill at Rs 227,794 crore. However, all the budget estimates, have undergone major revisions as the country imposed strict lockdown to check the spread of COVID-19.
The finance minister has stayed true to her commitment to fiscal consolidation, even though the pace of the decline in the deficit could have been faster, notes A K Bhattacharya.
The ministry of minority affairs informed the Lok Sabha that in 2022-2023, it had been allotted Rs 5,020.5 crore (Rs 50.20 billion); in the Revised Estimates, it had got Rs 2,612.66 crore (Rs 26.12 billion); and had spent, until the end of March this year, Rs 712.5 crore (Rs 7,12 billion).
'Spend, but create assets, spend but make sure that people benefit from it.' 'This has been a beautiful guiding principle. And I think as a finance minister I owe so much to the prime minister for keeping this path clear before us.'
As per practice a vote-on-account or approval for essential government spending for a limited period is taken in the election year and a full-fledged budget presented by the new government.
Fiscal deficit is a reflection of government borrowings, which is used to bridge the gap between revenue and expenditure.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will have to do a tight-rope walk between staying fiscally prudent and general public expectations of lower taxes and a wider social security net, while at the same time firing the engines of the economy before general elections. Sitharaman will on Wednesday present her fifth straight Budget at a time when the economy is slowing due to global headwinds and specific sectors need attention. In the run-up to the Budget presentation, expectations are rife that she may tweak income-tax slabs to provide relief to the middle class and increase spending on the poor through programmes such as the rural job scheme while ramping up financial incentives for local manufacturing.
The RBI raked in a massive net income gain from foreign exchange currency sales as a buffer for the rupee during tumultuous geopolitical upheavals last year owing to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Could it have been more reformist? Of course, but this is an election year Budget, observes Akash Prakash.
Sanam Teri Kasam got the biggest collections ever for a re-release.
The ministry of finance is likely to assume crude oil price to remain within $85 per barrel while estimating subsidies for the Interim Budget 2024-25 (FY25), to be presented on February 1. Brent crude prices moved up on Thursday, ending at $78.9 per barrel. Crude oil and cooking gas prices, which move in tandem, impact fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies, constituting 53 per cent of the government's total subsidies.
Direct tax collection, net of refunds, moderately exceeded the revised estimates (RE) for the financial year 2023-24 (FY24) on the back of personal income tax revenues, but corporation tax receipts fell short of the RE. Net direct tax collection stood at Rs 19.58 trillion in FY24, surpassing the RE of Rs 19.45 trillion by Rs 13,000 crore, or 0.7 per cent. The government had revised up FY24 projections for personal income tax by 13.5 per cent over the Budget estimates (BE) of Rs 9 trillion, at Rs 10.22 trillion.
The net direct tax collection for the fiscal ended March 31 stood at Rs 9.45 lakh crore, an increase of 5 per cent over the revised estimates in the Union Budget. Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) Chairman P C Mody on Friday said the income tax department has exceeded the revised estimates despite issuing substantial refunds in the 2020-21 fiscal. During the fiscal, the net corporate tax collection stood at Rs 4.57 lakh crore, while net personal income tax was Rs 4.71 lakh crore. Another Rs 16,927 crore came from securities transaction tax (STT).
Gross GST collections rose by 9.1 per cent to about Rs 1.84 lakh crore in February, boosted by domestic consumption and indicating potential economic revival. As per the official data released on Saturday, on a gross basis, mop up from Central GST stood at Rs 35,204 crore, State GST at Rs 43,704 crore, Integrated GST at Rs 90,870 crore and compensation cess of Rs 13,868 crore.
The defence budget was increased to Rs 5.94 lakh crore for 2023-24, up from last year's allocation of Rs 5.25 lakh crore.
To threaten China and Pakistan, and then to sharply cut back on military funding, bespeaks a remarkable trust in Beijing and Islamabad that is not borne out by anything they say or do, notes Ajai Shukla.
The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector is likely to report muted results in the fourth quarter of 2024-25 (Q4FY25) due to weakness in urban consumption. The weakness may persist through the first half of 2025-26 (H1FY26).
The central government's fiscal deficit touched 32.6 per cent of the annual target in the current financial year till August as against 31.1 per cent recorded a year ago, according to official data released on Friday. In actual terms, the fiscal deficit -- the difference between expenditure and revenue --- was Rs 5,41,601 crore during the April-August period of this financial year. Fiscal deficit is an indicator of the government's borrowings from the market.
Equity benchmarks climbed in early trade on Wednesday amid an overall positive trend in the global markets and ahead of the presentation of Union Budget 2023-24. The 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex jumped 516.97 points to 60,066.87. The broader NSE Nifty climbed 153.15 points to 17,815.30.
According to the third batch of supplementary demands for grants tabled in the Lok Sabha, approval is being sought for gross additional expenditure of over Rs 1.58 lakh crore.
'We are not incentivising the old tax scheme. These taxpayers will also shift to the new regime after comparison.'
Unlike the Advance Estimates which missed the impact of demonetisation, CEA's survey is likely to have a better take on Indian economy.
'Any finality in such matters requires political views. We will review it closer to the full Budget.'
The Uttar Pradesh government is expecting over 35 crore pilgrims to attend the Maha Kumbh Mela in Prayagraj, a significant increase from the 24 crore who attended the 2019 Kumbh Mela. The event, which will take place over 45 days, will feature extensive security and sanitation measures, as well as a digital component. The state government has allocated Rs 7,000 crore for the event.
'For free supply of drugs and medicines itself, almost Rs 20,000 crores would be required.'
The Centre could better its fiscal deficit at 6.6 per cent of GDP in this financial year on stronger-than-expected revenue buoyancy, even if the budgeted disinvestment target is not met, Fitch Ratings has said. The international rating agency had last week kept the sovereign rating unchanged at 'BBB-' with a negative outlook, and said that the risks to India's medium-term growth outlook are narrowing with rapid economic recovery from the pandemic and easing financial sector pressures. In an email interview with PTI, Fitch Ratings Director (Asia-Pacific Sovereigns) Jeremy Zook said the two key positive triggers that could lead to a revision of the outlook to stable are implementation of a credible medium-term fiscal strategy to lower debt burden and higher medium-term investment and growth rates without the creation of macroeconomic imbalances, such as from successful structural reform implementation and a healthier financial sector.
India's economy grew 7.6 per cent in the September quarter of this fiscal and remained the fastest-growing large economy, mainly due to better performance by manufacturing, mining and services sectors, the government data showed on Thursday. The gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 6.2 per cent in the July-September quarter of 2022-23. India remained the fastest-growing major economy, as China posted a 4.9 per cent growth in July-September 2023.
For 2017-18, the government aims to bring down the fiscal deficit to 3.2 per cent of GDP. Last fiscal, it had met the 3.5 per cent target.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday projected general government debt to stabilise above 80 per cent of GDP over the next three years, down from 89.3 per cent in 2020-21. "General government interest payments to fall to around 24 per cent of general government revenue over the next two years from over 28 per cent in fiscal 2020-21, although this remains much higher than the median 8.7 per cent recorded by Baa-rated peers," Moody's Ratings associate managing director Gene Fang said in a post-Budget reaction.
Invest in these funds through the SIP route with at least a seven-year horizon.
The government is likely to provide a subsidy of Rs 35,000 crore to state-owned Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) to make up for losses they incurred on selling the fuel this fiscal, sources said.
The final agriculture GDP numbers for 2016-17 are expected to be revised up, as rabi production is looking really good.
Buying or selling securities based on rumours about expected changes in tax rates or sectoral sops can backfire, advises Sarbajeet K Sen.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Adani Ports, UltraTech Cement, Larsen & Toubro, Sun Pharma, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, NTPC and State Bank of India were the major laggards. Tata Consultancy Services, Reliance Industries, ITC, Asian Paints, HCL Tech and Maruti were among the gainers.
